The Nebius revenue forecast for 2026 will land at the low end of the company’s earlier range, the AI cloud provider said on Thursday. Delays in third-party capacity are to blame, and a higher spending outlook hit the stock. Reuters reported that shares fell nearly 12% before the US open, and Nebius later fell about 17% in regular trading.
The drop reversed part of Wednesday’s 15% jump, which followed strong results from rival CoreWeave.
What Happened
Nebius, which is based in Amsterdam, said some third-party capacity expected to come online this year has slipped to the first half of 2027. The company stressed that the contracts behind that capacity remain in place.
Because of the delay, Nebius now expects to reach its target of more than $7 billion in annualised run-rate revenue about two months later than planned.
At the same time, the company raised its full-year capital spending forecast to about $27 billion. Its earlier view was $20 billion to $25 billion, and analysts had expected $22 billion on average, according to LSEG data cited by Reuters.
Why the Nebius Revenue Forecast Matters
Neoclouds such as Nebius and CoreWeave rent AI computing power to customers, and they borrow heavily to build data centres. Investors have grown more sensitive to financing risk across the group. A forecast that points to slower delivery and higher spending feeds directly into those concerns.
The result also matters for sentiment toward the wider AI buildout. A sell-off in AI data-centre stocks on November 5 drove the S&P 500 to its worst day since the tariff turmoil of 2025, according to the Associated Press. Strong CoreWeave results helped stocks recover on Wednesday, but Thursday’s declines threatened to erase those gains.
Key Details
Nebius reported the following, as relayed by Reuters:
Third-quarter revenue: $981 million for the quarter ended September 30, above analyst estimates of $907.5 million.
2026 capital spending: About $27 billion, up from a prior range of $20 billion to $25 billion.
2027 spending: $40 billion to $45 billion projected.
Funding plan: The company expects 75% to 85% of 2027 spending to be covered by customer prepayments and asset-backed financing of existing contracts.
2027 sales: $12 billion to $13 billion expected, with a pre-tax breakeven by the end of next year.
The financing details are aimed at calming investors who worry about neocloud balance sheets. CoreWeave, for its part, raised its annual revenue forecast on Tuesday and said it targets adjusted profitability in the first half of 2028. The Next Web reported that CoreWeave’s revenue jumped 168% to $3.66 billion and that it ruled out new unsecured debt.
How the market reacted
Reuters said Nebius shares fell 17% in US trading and CoreWeave dropped about 7%. IREN, Applied Digital and Core Scientific fell between 3% and 5%. The Philadelphia semiconductor index declined 1.3%.
Nvidia’s news dominated the session. Its shares dropped 7.6% after CEO Jensen Huang resigned, and the S&P 500 technology sector fell 1.3%.
Broader Context
The AI sell-off is unfolding alongside a tougher economic backdrop. Reuters reported that consumer prices rose more than expected last month, and investors are awaiting Friday’s Producer Price Index release.
Traders now see a December interest-rate hike by the Federal Reserve as a certainty, according to the CME FedWatch tool, with about a 13% chance of a larger 50-basis-point move. Higher rates raise the cost of the debt that AI infrastructure companies rely on.
Oil is another pressure point. Vanguard senior US economist Josh Hirt said prices have stayed near $100 a barrel for much of the year, extending energy’s contribution to inflation. Brent crude rose 0.8% on Thursday after President Donald Trump said “We don’t need a deal with Iran”.
Energy costs and borrowing costs both matter for data-centre builders. They are capital-intensive businesses with large power needs.
What Happens Next
Investors will watch whether the delayed capacity comes online as Nebius now expects in the first half of 2027. The company’s assurance that contracts remain intact will be tested by actual delivery.
The Producer Price Index due on Friday could shape rate expectations before the Fed’s December meeting. A hot reading would reinforce the case for tighter policy and could weigh further on high-spending AI companies.
Attention will also stay on Nvidia, where the board’s search for a permanent chief executive is under way. Market participants will look for signs that AI demand remains intact despite the leadership turmoil. For now, the sector is trading on a mix of strong demand signals and rising questions about how its growth will be financed.
