Oil Prices Fall After Trump Rules Out Iran Attack Before Midterm Elections

Oil prices fell on Friday, October 9, after President Donald Trump said the United States will not attack Iran before the November 3 midterm elections. Brent crude futures dropped to $103.18 a barrel by 1328 GMT, according to Reuters. The move followed a volatile week in which oil prices and Iran headlines drove markets around the world.

What Happened to Oil Prices and Iran Talks

Trump posted on Truth Social late Thursday that the U.S. is having “productive discussions” with Iran. He said no attack would come before the vote. The statement followed reports that the White House was weighing new strike options.

Oil had jumped on those reports. Brent rose more than 4% on Thursday to about $106 before easing after Trump’s message. U.S. benchmark West Texas Intermediate settled near $92 a barrel.

PVM Oil Associates analyst Tamas Varga said Trump’s pledge and China’s resumption of product exports both pushed prices lower on Friday. Al Jazeera noted that some analysts believe the president’s comments were meant to bring prices down.

Why It Matters

The Strait of Hormuz carried about 20% of the world’s oil and fuel before the war began. The conflict started on February 28 and is now in its eighth month. Iran has effectively closed the waterway to its enemies, and the U.S. maintains a naval blockade of Iranian ports.

Higher energy costs spread through the economy. Brent traded at roughly $119 during the period.

Airlines show the effect. Delta Air Lines said on Friday it must absorb a $6 billion increase in fuel costs this year. Its chief executive said demand remains strong.

Key Details

• Brent crude: $103.18 a barrel by 1328 GMT Friday, down 1.1%

• WTI: Settled near $92 a barrel

• Trigger: Trump says no U.S. attack on Iran before November 3

• Sanctions: New U.S. measures target individuals, networks and 17 vessels carrying Iranian oil and petrochemicals

• Diplomacy: Iran’s foreign minister, Abbas Araqchi, said Tehran is reviewing the U.S. response to its proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz within seven days, per Tasnim as cited by Reuters

• Domestic policy: Trump said he is considering suspending the federal gasoline tax and teased a diesel announcement

The conflict has not been settled on the ground. Trump has said for weeks that the United States won the war, but the AP reports that regional unrest persists. The sanctions announced this week are part of a wider effort to pressure Iran economically while talks continue. Brent was also heading for a weekly gain, according to Anadolu Agency, even as Friday’s session pointed lower.

Broader Context: Oil, Inflation and the Fed

Oil is feeding directly into the interest-rate debate. The Federal Reserve raised rates on September 16 to a range of 3.75%–4.00%, citing inflation. Energy costs are one of the pressures behind that stance.

Treasury yields reflect the same worry. The 10-year yield stood near 5.24% on Friday. A fresh jump in oil would complicate the inflation picture ahead of the Fed’s October 27–28 meeting.

Political timing is also part of the story. The Atlantic reported that the White House asked the Pentagon for strike options before the elections. An Israeli official told Axios that the chances of an attack rise sharply after the midterms. Axios reported that Israeli and U.S. officials say Iranian leaders are deeply suspicious of Trump’s statements.

Positions in Tehran remain mixed. On Monday, Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian called negotiations with Washington futile. Russian President Vladimir Putin told him on Thursday that Russia would do everything to help end the war.

What Happens Next

The immediate focus is Iran’s response to the U.S. position on reopening the Strait of Hormuz. Tehran said it is reviewing it. No timetable for a reply has been confirmed.

Traders will also watch for the White House’s diesel announcement and any move on the federal gasoline tax. Both could affect fuel prices before the vote.

The pledge covers only the period before November 3. It does not rule out military action afterward, and the blockade and sanctions remain in force. Shipping threats in the Gulf could still move oil quickly, as they did this week.